Methodology & Scoring Engine
We believe impressive metrics mean nothing without transparent methodology. Here is exactly how Horizon Radar calculates every quantitative score across our terminal.
1. Opportunity Score Calculation (0 - 100)
The Opportunity Score is a composite quantitative index measuring the commercial attractiveness and momentum of a trend. It is designed to be objective, weighing real signal density while imposing heavy discount penalties for false hype.
Signal Velocity
30-day acceleration of verified mentions across GitHub, HN, arXiv, and industry reports.
Pain Point Density
Frequency of concrete complaints, open bugs, and unsolved commercial friction.
WTP / Market Liquidity
Signals of real B2B/trader budgets, historical transactions, and institutional capital allocation.
Hype Risk Discount
Discount applied if a trend is dominated by social influencers without code or revenue proof.
2. Growth % Measurement Methodology
Growth figures (+180%, +320%, etc.) are not guesses or model hallucinations. They represent the exact ratio of trailing 30-day verified signal volume compared to the prior 90-day baseline average:
To maintain pure data fidelity, we automatically deduplicate bot reposts and auto-generated boilerplate repositories so only genuine organic activity counts toward growth.
3. Source Confidence Rigor Levels (0 - 100)
Why do some opportunities display labels like 'Validating' or 'Early Signal' with lower confidence scores (40 - 70)? Because we are strictly honest about data maturity thresholds:
Emerging trend supported by fewer than 5 independent primary sources. High innovation potential, but requires monitoring and validation before aggressive capital deployment.
Corroborated by 5 to 10 distinct primary sources (including active code commits, analyst reports, and early real-world adoption by traders/builders).
Backed by 10+ primary sources, official disclosures (SEC / IDX), verified revenue telemetry, or massive institutional order-flow execution.
4. Trader vs. SaaS Pipeline Differentiation
We do not treat all data equally. On market pages (Macro Economy, Crypto, IDX, Stocks), the system automatically disables SaaS metrics (like Willingness-to-Pay & Pain Score) and activates Market Sentry: tracking valid market-moving news, regulatory triggers, and volume spikes so traders get pure signal without noise.