Algorithm & Scoring Transparency

Methodology & Scoring Engine

We believe impressive metrics mean nothing without transparent methodology. Here is exactly how Horizon Radar calculates every quantitative score across our terminal.

1. Opportunity Score Calculation (0 - 100)

The Opportunity Score is a composite quantitative index measuring the commercial attractiveness and momentum of a trend. It is designed to be objective, weighing real signal density while imposing heavy discount penalties for false hype.

35% Weight

Signal Velocity

30-day acceleration of verified mentions across GitHub, HN, arXiv, and industry reports.

25% Weight

Pain Point Density

Frequency of concrete complaints, open bugs, and unsolved commercial friction.

25% Weight

WTP / Market Liquidity

Signals of real B2B/trader budgets, historical transactions, and institutional capital allocation.

-15% Penalty

Hype Risk Discount

Discount applied if a trend is dominated by social influencers without code or revenue proof.

2. Growth % Measurement Methodology

Growth figures (+180%, +320%, etc.) are not guesses or model hallucinations. They represent the exact ratio of trailing 30-day verified signal volume compared to the prior 90-day baseline average:

Growth % = ((Volume Sinyal 30 Hari Terakhir - Baseline Rata-rata 90 Hari) / Baseline Rata-rata 90 Hari) × 100%

To maintain pure data fidelity, we automatically deduplicate bot reposts and auto-generated boilerplate repositories so only genuine organic activity counts toward growth.

3. Source Confidence Rigor Levels (0 - 100)

Why do some opportunities display labels like 'Validating' or 'Early Signal' with lower confidence scores (40 - 70)? Because we are strictly honest about data maturity thresholds:

40 - 69: Early Signal / ValidatingEarly Signal

Emerging trend supported by fewer than 5 independent primary sources. High innovation potential, but requires monitoring and validation before aggressive capital deployment.

70 - 84: Verified Trend / Growing AdoptionVerified Trend

Corroborated by 5 to 10 distinct primary sources (including active code commits, analyst reports, and early real-world adoption by traders/builders).

85 - 100: High-Confidence Institutional ConsensusHigh Confidence

Backed by 10+ primary sources, official disclosures (SEC / IDX), verified revenue telemetry, or massive institutional order-flow execution.

4. Trader vs. SaaS Pipeline Differentiation

We do not treat all data equally. On market pages (Macro Economy, Crypto, IDX, Stocks), the system automatically disables SaaS metrics (like Willingness-to-Pay & Pain Score) and activates Market Sentry: tracking valid market-moving news, regulatory triggers, and volume spikes so traders get pure signal without noise.