Prediction Market Strategy Bot Framework

On-policy distillation (OPD) adapts diffusion models by querying a teacher along trajectories generated by the current student, but how it should behave under classifier-free guidance (CFG), a default component of modern diffusion systems, remains poorly understood. Existing OPD methods naturally extend velocity matching to the CFG-composed prediction, directly matching teacher and student guided velocities. We show that this objective is under-identified at the branch level: positive- and negative-branch errors can compensate in the guided prediction. Through two contrasting cases, we find that naive matching remains effective under shared negative conditioning, where both branch errors decrease jointly. When the model's native CFG schema retains privileged information in the teacher's negative branch that is unavailable to the student, however, this joint reduction breaks down and the composed objective induces antagonistic branch-error dynamics, reducing the positive-branch error while increasing the negative-branch error. We term this failure mode Negative Branch Asymmetry (NBA). To address NBA, we introduce Positive--Direction Matching (PDM), a branch-aware OPD objective that separately constrains the positive prediction and the CFG conditional direction. We apply PDM to dense-to-sparse video control, where naive guided matching is highly sensitive to inference guidance scales, while branch-aware supervision enables more robust and effective knowledge transfer.

Pretraining data processing is critical to the downstream performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, many existing approaches define a fixed processing strategy at the corpus or domain level and apply it uniformly to many examples, without adapting to the needs of each example. We propose DataOrchestra, a framework that unifies different processing operations and orchestrates an example-specific pipeline for each example. Given a chunk of pretraining data, an orchestrator decides whether to drop, untouch, or clean it. For a chunk to be cleaned, it selects one or more downstream operations, ranging from programmatic editing to different forms of LLM-based rewriting. For each rewriting step, it further generates a concrete instruction, which is executed by the corresponding downstream tool model. We pretrain models from 0.5B to 7B from scratch on web data processed by DataOrchestra and observe stable average gains over individual data-processing methods across 11 benchmarks. DataOrchestra is also effective for math continued pretraining and outperforms stronger processing baselines, while reducing processing compute by skipping unnecessary downstream operations.

This paper presents Earthquaker-AI, a hybrid educational framework building upon a previously implemented educational robotics project by integrating a conversational AI assistant based on Retrieval-Augmented Generation. It aims to enhance earthquake preparedness and conscious action among primary-school students. The system extends the award-winning STEM project Earthquaker moving from mechanical simulation with Lego WeDo2 to cognitive and metacognitive processing. The robotics component uses Lego WeDo2 automation to simulate seismic response, letting students interact with sensors and actuators as tangible representations of protective actions. The assistant operates as a guided learning mechanism aligning student responses with safety guidelines, while providing rubric-based verbal feedback that supports self-regulated learning and calmness under emergency conditions. Earthquaker-AI follows a progressive learning trajectory aligned with cognitive development. In early grades, the focus is on basic recognition of safety actions through multiple-choice questions, assessed via a two-dimensional rubric. In middle grades, students identify correct action sequences through multiple-choice questions, evaluated via a three-axis rubric. In upper grades, the approach shifts to verbal production, requiring short written responses assessed via a four-dimensional rubric that includes clarity of expression. The dialogic module uses RAG to match student queries semantically with official guidelines, generating safe, accurate responses. Experimental evaluation shows high groundedness and accuracy, with a low hallucination rate. Overall, Earthquaker-AI combines hands-on engagement, information processing, and reflective practice. Combining robotics, rubrics, and AI promotes technological literacy, self-regulation, and responsible use of digital systems, contributing to early crisis-management skills.

With rising global energy demand and growing awareness of climate change and its impacts, the share of renewable energies in the global energy mix continues to grow. Unlike conventional power generation, the output of renewable energy sources cannot be controlled as consistently due to their dependence on environmental conditions. Therefore, reliable prediction of current and future energy production is essential. In this paper, we report findings from two structured literature reviews on real-world renewable energy prediction tasks: wind turbine power curve modeling and photovoltaic power prediction. For the former, we conducted a comprehensive literature review ourselves, while for the latter, we synthesize the key findings regarding frequently selected input features based on an existing survey. Across both domains, our analysis reveals that despite the large number of available monitoring and environmental variables, only limited or unsystematic methods for feature selection exist. To address this gap, we propose Cluster-based Sequential Feature Selection (CSFS), a novel, model-agnostic, clustering-based wrapper method for automatic, efficient, and reliable feature selection in renewable energy prediction pipelines. To support reproducibility and reuse, we provide an open-source implementation of CSFS on GitHub. We empirically evaluate the proposed approach on both use cases and compare it with established feature selection techniques such as wrapper-based sequential feature selection (SFS), filter-based methods, and Random Forest's embedded feature importance. The results show that the wrapper-based methods overall provide better-performing selections of features. CSFS achieves a predictive performance comparable to SFS while reducing computational cost by an average of 21%.

This paper presents a cascaded Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA)-based multimodal fusion framework for action and activity recognition in healthcare-oriented training environments. The proposed architecture combines parameter-efficient modality-specific adaptation with sequential fusion, enabling modalities to be integrated in stages without retraining previously learned components. Rather than assuming a fixed fusion structure, the framework first integrates more closely related modalities and then incorporates additional heterogeneous modalities, supporting scalable adaptation across datasets with different modality sets.We evaluate the framework on two healthcare-oriented training environment datasets: NurViD and the Nurse Training dataset. Across these datasets, preliminary results suggest that the proposed cascaded fusion strategy improves over individual modality models and provides competitive performance relative to previously reported dataset-specific baselines. Overall, these findings indicate that cascaded LoRA-based fusion is a promising parameter-efficient approach for integrating heterogeneous modalities in medical training action and activity recognition tasks. github: https://github.com/anonymous0-ai/LoRA-Based-Cascaded-Multimodal-Fusion-.git.

We introduce MM-ToolSandBox, a benchmark and evaluation framework for visually grounded tool-calling agents. The framework provides a stateful execution environment spanning 500+ tools across 16 application domains, supporting multi-image, multi-turn tasks where agents must ground progressively arriving visual inputs into executable tool calls while handling realistic conversational phenomena (goal revisions, error corrections, state mutations). An automated scenario generation pipeline produces diverse, visually grounded scenarios through information-flow-guided planning and multi-stage quality filtering, yielding 258 human-verified nominal scenarios and 50 variants targeting interactive UI applications. Evaluating 12 state-of-the-art models, from 4B open-weight to frontier proprietary systems, shows that current models still lack robust visual tool-calling capability: even the best model achieves below 50% success rate. Our failure analysis further reveals that visual precision, not only planning, is a primary bottleneck for capable models: 53% of failures stem from incorrect information extraction from images despite otherwise correct task workflows. A planning-to-precision crossover emerges with scale: smaller models fail at deciding what to do, while larger models fail at perceiving what they see, suggesting fundamentally different research directions for improving models at different capability levels. The framework and the benchmark are publicly available at https://github.com/apple/ml-mmtoolsandbox

Multimodal large language models exhibit capabilities on reasoning tasks, yet often produce flawed intermediate steps while yielding correct final answers. This behavior undermines interpretability and reliability, suggesting reliance on spurious shortcuts rather than faithful reasoning. Although efforts have explored step-level supervision, distinguishing decisive steps from redundant ones remains challenging. We propose $O^2$-CritiCuRL, a novel curriculum reinforcement learning framework that introduces critical-step awareness through an iterative offline-online paradigm. In the offline stage, $O^2$-CritiCuRL conducts multi-rollout analysis over step-annotated trajectories to estimate step-level importance, allowing the framework to distill critical reasoning steps and filter out redundant ones. In the online stage, we employ a progressive step-level reinforcement learning strategy, where truncated chains guide the model to infer missing steps and refine its reasoning, thereby sharpening its focus on critical steps and overcoming the limitations of static supervision. Extensive experiments on multimodal reasoning benchmarks show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance while delivering superior training and inference efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/kk0013/CritiCuRL.

Despite rapid progress, most existing vision-language models (VLMs) built from 2D visual inputs often struggle when handling various 3D tasks that require fine-grained spatial understanding and reasoning. To bridge this gap, we present VLM-IE3D, a unified framework that enhances the 3D spatial awareness of VLMs by equipping them with both implicit and explicit 3D geometries learned from RGB videos. Our VLM-IE3D introduces Implicit Geometry Tokens (IGTs) that capture high-level geometric priors from input videos, as well as complementary Explicit Geometry Tokens (EGTs) that encode detailed geometric structures from reconstructed 3D attributes. On top of that, VLM-IE3D comes with a 3D-aware adapter that effectively fuses the two types of geometric representations with 2D visual cues. This RGB-only design injects strong 3D inductive biases for fine-grained spatial understanding and reasoning without requiring any additional 3D inputs. Extensive experiments show that VLM-IE3D achieves superior performance consistently across various 3D tasks including 3D video detection, 3D visual grounding, 3D dense captioning, and spatial reasoning. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Vegetebird/VLM-IE3D.

Faithful explanations of time-series classifiers should identify subsequences that are not only sufficient to preserve a black-box model's prediction, but also necessary for maintaining it. However, existing sufficiency-oriented methods can assign high importance to spurious subsequences that support the prediction without being essential to the model's decision. We introduce \textbf{TimePNS}, a necessity-aware framework for time-series explanation. Inspired by Pearl's counterfactual notion of necessity, TimePNS assesses whether a temporal factor is necessary by intervening on it and measuring whether the original prediction is disrupted. The framework adopts a two-stage design. Stage I learns an identifiable causal generative process together with a sufficiency-oriented explanation mask. Stage II performs counterfactual interventions on temporal factors to derive necessity signals, which supervise a temporal gate that refines the initial explanation by suppressing non-essential components and emphasizing counterfactually necessary ones. Experiments on synthetic and real-world time-series benchmarks show that TimePNS more accurately identifies decision-critical subsequences and consistently improves sufficiency-necessity trade-offs over strong baselines.

Reliable autonomous driving requires full-scene perception that couples foreground objects with dense semantic layout. Recently, 4D millimeter-wave radar has emerged as a robust and affordable sensor, yet its sparse returns make radar-camera fusion necessary for comprehensive scene understanding. Existing radar-camera methods mainly optimize detection, while dual-task systems usually decode boxes and occupancy with limited interaction. To address this gap and advance radar-based multi-task learning, we propose \method, a 4D radar-camera framework for 360$^\circ$ full-scene perception, which models semantic occupancy as a persistent scene state rather than a terminal output. \method{} follows a cross-modal state reasoning paradigm, where the occupancy state is modeled and propagated through stages for coarse-to-fine feature aggregation. Specifically, State-guided BEV Enhancement (SBE) strengthens intra-frame BEV representation, while Doppler-guided Temporal Fusion (DTF) preserves state evidence over longer temporal horizons. Beyond the model, we further extend ManTruckScenes with satellite-map-based generated occupancy labels and pair it with OmniHD-Scenes in a unified cross-dataset detection-and-occupancy protocol. The resulting experiments cover accuracy, robustness, ablation, and efficiency under one radar-camera multi-task evaluation framework. Code and labels will be released upon acceptance.

Reasoning has become a core capability for large models, especially when reliable decisions require understanding logical consequences. Recent video generation models offer a reasoning path distinct from previous Chain-of-Thought (CoT): reasoning can unfold through temporally connected frames, known as Chain-of-Frame (CoF) reasoning. However, existing video generators are primarily trained on general video corpora, still lacking diverse supervision and dedicated designs for CoF reasoning. To address this gap, we introduce OpenCoF, a framework comprising the OpenCoF-17K dataset, a reasoning video dataset spanning 11 task families, and Wan-CoF, a fine-tuned video model for studying whether diverse temporal supervision improves CoF behavior. Across four video reasoning benchmarks, Wan-CoF achieves considerable gains over the Wan2.2-I2V-A14B baseline. Building on this, we empirically explore more advanced designs for CoF capabilities, i.e., equipping the model with visual and textual reasoning tokens. This mechanism respectively captures low-level visual cues and high-level semantic priors for spatial and temporal reasoning. Through performance comparisons and attention analysis, we examine how these tokens contribute across model depth, denoising steps, space, and time. Our results suggest that stronger video reasoning requires both broad temporal supervision and explicit mechanisms for organizing intermediate reasoning state. We open-source the dataset, model, and code to facilitate future research on reasoning-oriented video generation.

Scientific ideas rarely start from a blank page. They inherit mechanisms, repair known limitations, and recombine pieces of earlier work, much like biological genomes. Current benchmarks still say little about whether AI systems can follow this inheritance structure. We present IdeaGene-Bench (IG-Bench), a benchmark for scientific lineage reasoning and lineage-grounded idea generation. IG-Bench is organized around the IdeaGene framework: each paper or proposal is represented as a set of minimal, typed, evidence-grounded Idea Genome objects, and a GenomeDiff aligns these objects to record inheritance, mutation, loss, external import, and novel insertion under six operational evolutionary dynamics. The benchmark contains 1,961 golden lineage traces, 1,085 curated Idea Genome objects, and 920 pairwise GenomeDiff records across 10 scientific domains. It supports two evaluations. IG-Exam (42 task types, 1,029 instances) tests closed-form lineage reasoning across Idea Genome abstraction, inheritance tracing, evolutionary reasoning, and lineage verification. IG-Arena evaluates generation with a lineage-conditioned Population-Evolution Score(PES), asking whether a proposal can be inserted as a coherent descendant of a given lineage population: it should inherit the right Idea Genome objects, vary meaningfully from nearby work, and offer selection value for future research. Experiments on 14 LLM-based scientists expose a compositional bottleneck. The strongest system reaches only 27.3% exact accuracy on lineage reasoning, and structured lineage context reshuffles system rankings rather than helping every participant uniformly.